基于预测承诺契约的物流服务供应链协调

针对由一个功能单一的物流服务分包商和一个物流服务集成商构成的物流服务供应链的协调问题，提出一种承诺契约协调模型。在此承诺契约中，集成商提供一个需求预测，并承诺至少购买一定比例的预测需求量；物流服务分包商基于集成商的预测进行物流能力投资决策，然后得到物流服务分包商的最优物流能力投资量和集成商预测值的取值集合，并将结果扩展到考虑引入回购因子的情况。研究表明在选取合理参数的条件下，提出的预测承诺契约能够鼓励分包商多备货投资，进而能够使物流服务供应链实现系统收益帕累托改进，提高供应链系统和集成商的期望利润，从而实现系统协调。回购因子的引入可以提高相同预测值下的投资水平。最后通过数值实验验证了结果的可靠性。

Logistics service supply chain coordination based on forecast-commitment contract

To coordinate the logistics service supply chain, composed by a sub-contractor with single function and an integrator, a forecast-commitment contract was proposed. In this contract, a forecast for a future order and a guarantee to purchase a portion of it were provided by the logistics service integrator. Base on the information from the integrator, the logistics services sub-contractor made a decision on logistics capabilities investment. It provided an optimal strategy for the logistics service sub-contractor and gave the optimal forecast for the logistics service integrator. Then a buyback parameter was drawn into the "forecast-commitment" contract. The experimental results show that if the parameters are reasonable, the proposed contract can moderate the logistics services sub-contractor to invest. It shows that this contract can coordinate the whole system by achieving Pareto improvement for the logistics service supply chain and the increase in revenue for the supply chain system and integrator. The buyback parameter can improve the logistics capabilities investment of the sub-contractor at the same forecast. Finally, a numerical experiment was carried out to illustrate the forecast-commitment contract, and results verified the theoretical analysis.