人口、产业和经济城镇化对水资源效益的空间溢出效应

论文基于水足迹理论，利用2004—2018年省际面板数据对长江经济带水资源效益进行评价，并运用空间计量模型，检验了研究期间区域人口、产业和经济城镇化对水资源效益的非线性影响关系及其空间溢出效应。结果表明:1）2004—2018年长江经济带的水资源经济效率与水资源贡献率有所提升，水资源压力不断增长；2）城镇化和水资源效益均表现出显著的空间集聚特征；3）产业和经济城镇化对水资源经济效率表现为先降后升的“U”型关系，对水资源压力呈先加剧后缓解的倒“U”型减压特征,人口城镇化对水资源经济效率的表现与产业和经济城镇化对水资源经济效率的表现刚好相反；4）人口和产业城镇化对水资源效益产生了明显的空间溢出效应并存在“门槛”现象，目前长江经济带产业和经济城镇化效应门槛已基本突破，仅部分西部地区的人口城镇化溢出效应门槛依然存在。

SPATIAL OVERFLOW EFFECT OF POPULATION,INDUSTRIES AND ECONOMIC URBANIZATION ON WATER RESOURCE BENEFITS

This paper uses water footprint theory and provincial panel data 2004 to 2018 to evaluate the water resource benefits of Yangtze river economic zone, and applies spatial quantitative model to study the non|linear impacts and spatial overflow of population, industries and economic urbanization on water resource benefits, with the results showing a rising economic efficiency and contributing rate of water resource in Yangtze river economic zone along with an increasing water resource pressure. Urbanization and water resource benefits show an outstanding spatial concentration. Industries and economic urbanization have a “U|shaped” relation to economic efficiency of water resource, but an upside|down “U|shaped” relation to water resource pressure. Population urbanization acts in a reverse way. Population and industrial urbanization produce an apparent spatial overflow effect on water resource benefits with a threshold. Industrial and economic urbanization has broken through the threshold effect in Yangtze river economic zone, only leaving threshold in partially west for population urbanization.