二元驱动的河湖历史演变及其启示

以河湖历史演变过程为研究对象，分析了演变的驱动力及其作用特征、影响因素，提出河湖演变呈现出由自然-人工二元平行驱动向二元交错驱动发展的趋势。针对在人为改变河湖水系的历史过程中曾出现过的问题和风险，重点讨论了当前水系布局规划需要思考的问题，包括自然地理分异、气候变化、成本效益、生态环境等。建议拓展研究的维度和尺度，合理利用自然情势并关注人类活动潜在而深远的影响，多途径削减不利影响，以构建满足水资源合理配置、兴利除害、生态环境保护等社会需求的江河湖库水系格局。

A study of historical evolution of rivers and lakes driven by natural and artificial forces and its enlightenment

By studying the historical evolution of rivers and lakes,and focusing on the driving forces and their characteristics and influential factors,it is proposed that the river and lake evolution has a change tendency from paralleled driving by natural and artificial forces to the staggered driving by natural and artificial forces.Aiming at the problems and risks of artificially reformed rivers and lakes in history,the considerations in the current river-lake system arrangement are discussed,including territorial differentiation,climate change,and cost-benefit and eco-environmental issues etc.It is suggested that expanding the research dimensions and scale,using natural situation rationally,concerning the potential far-reaching impact of human activity,and reducing adverse effects by multiple ways may help build river-lake system that meets the need of reasonable water resources allocation,benefit-raising and ecological environment protection.