小波分析在旱情趋势预测中的应用研究

为了对2009～2010年云南省遭受100 a一遇大旱的旱情指标进行趋势分析和预测，根据2011年9月份以前云南省旱情较重地区的实测年降水量资料序列，应用Kendall秩相关检验、小波分析方法，分析3个雨量站降水量序列的变化趋势，提取变化周期，判断2011年9~12月份的降水变化趋势及后期旱情的发展方向。结果表明：重旱区中，除沾益站外，新华、董湖站9~12月份降水量下降趋势明显；几种方法预测结果具有趋同性，均表明各站同期的降水量少于常年，旱情存在进一步发展的可能。

Study and application of wavelet method in prediction of drought trend

The 100-year frequency drought occurred in Yunan Province during 2009 to 2010,so it is necessary to study the drought trend,analyze and predict the important drought indexes.According to the measured precipitation data sequence from the stations in the severe drought region before September 2011,the trends of precipitation sequence of the 3 rainfall stations are analyzed by application of Kendall’s rank correlation test and wavelet analysis method.On this basis,the change period is extracted to forecast the tendency of precipitation variation from September to December in 2011 and its later development trend of drought in these areas is determined.The results showed that the decline trend of precipitation in Xinhua Station and Donghu Station in September to December is evident.The results of several methods are almost the same,which shows that the rainfall from September to December in 2011 is less than that in normal years and that there is the possibility of further development of drought.