| Abstract: | This study proposes a comprehensive data processing and modeling framework for building high‐accuracy machine learning model to predict the steam consumption of a gas sweetening process. The data pipeline processes raw historical data of this application and identifies the minimum number of modeling variables required for this prediction in order to ease the applicability and practicality of such methods in the industrial units. On the modeling end, an empirical comparison of most of the state‐of‐the‐arts regression algorithms was run in order to find the best fit to this specific case study. The ultimate goal is to leverage this model to identify the achievable energy conservation opportunity in such plants. The historical data for this modeling was collected from a gas treating plant at South Pars Gas Complex for 3 years from 2017 to 2019. This data gets passed through a multistage data processing scheme that conducts multicollinearity analysis and model‐based feature selection. For model selection, a wide range of regression algorithms from different classes of regressor have been considered. Among all these methods, the Gradient Boosting Machines model outperformed the others and achieved the lowest cross‐validation error. The results show that this model can predict the steam consumption values with 98% R‐squared accuracy on the holdout test set. Furthermore, the offline analysis demonstrates that there is a potential of 2% energy saving, equivalent to 24 000 metric tons of annual steam consumption reduction, which can be achieved by mapping the underperforming energy consumption states of the unit to the expected performances predicted by the model. |
