| 宝鸡市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙新新,沈冰,于俊丽,刘兴建,莫淑红. 宝鸡市水资源承载力系统动力学仿真模型研究[J]. 西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 39(1): 72-77 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙新新 沈冰 于俊丽 刘兴建 莫淑红 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室,陕西,西安,710048
2. 宝鸡市市区河道综合治理委员会,陕西,宝鸡,721000 |
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| 摘 要： | 水资源承载力是一个地区持续发展过程中各种自然资源承载力的重要组成部分,对地区综合发展和规划非常重要.针对宝鸡市水资源系统所具有的复杂系统特征,采用系统动力学原理和方法,在对其进行结构和因果关系分析的基础上,将水资源承载力系统划分为人口、农业、工业、水污染、水资源5个子系统,通过各层次的反馈关系,建立水资源承载力变化的系统动力学模型,并通过策略模拟试验了政策变化对水资源承载力的影响.通过对模型模拟结果的比较,提出了适合的经济发展方案和建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 宝鸡市 水资源承载力 系统动力学模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-7930（2007）01-0072-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-12 |
Carrying capacity of water resources of Baoji city based on the system dynamics model |
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| SUN Xin-xin,SHEN Bing,YU Jun-li,LIU Xing-jian,MO Shu-hong. Carrying capacity of water resources of Baoji city based on the system dynamics model[J]. Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology, 2007, 39(1): 72-77 |
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| Authors: | SUN Xin-xin SHEN Bing YU Jun-li LIU Xing-jian MO Shu-hong |
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| Abstract: | Water resources carring capacity is an important component of a variety of nature carring capacity in the course of regional sustainable development,and plays an important role in regional development planning.Based on the local system characteristics of water resources in Baoji,system dynamics(SD)model was used to simulate the water resources carrying capacity in the present paper.According to systematic theory and cause-effect analysis of the complicated system,SD model of water resources carrying capacity was established and divided into 5 sub-systems.The policy effects on the water resources carrying capacity were tested through policy control factors.Finally,on the ground of the simulation results,the best scheme and some suggestions were put forward. |
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| Keywords: | Baoji city water resources carrying capacity system dynamics model |
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