对外承包工程风险分析与评价

对外承包工程相对于国内工程而言具有更大的风险性,寻找一种合适的风险评价指标体系及评价方法具有重要的现实意义。参考已有风险评价指标体系的基础上,结合对外承包工程的特点和风险性质,采用德尔菲方法重新构建了对外承包工程的风险评价指标体系,并采用经典的层次分析法计算出各个指标的权重。模糊综合评价中,充分借鉴专家的经验,运用模糊数学方法,对项目整体风险进行评价。研究结果表明,层次分析法与模糊综合评判法的结合,使得该评估系统具有较强的适用性和可操作性,在对外承包工程风险评价中有一定的推广价值。

Risk Analysis and Evaluation of Foreign Contract Project

The risk of foreign contract projects are greater than that of domestic projects,so searching for a suitable risk evaluation index system and evaluation method is of important practical significance.On the basis of the previous risk evaluation index systems,and combining with the characteristics and risk nature of foreign contract project,a new risk evaluation index system is constructed by the use of Delphi method,and the weight of each indication is calculated with the help of classical AHP.Then the overall risk of the project is evaluated in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation by fully using the experience of experts for reference and with the help of fuzzy mathematics.The research results show that the combination of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method could make the evaluation system highly applicable and practical,and it is of great value in the risk evaluation of foreign contract projects.