城镇化与流动人口家庭空间结构关系研究--基于全国大样本数据的分析

建立“家庭友好型”的城镇化发展模式,以解决流动人口家庭空间分离问题,实现城市安居乐业的美好生活,是中国新时代人口城镇化的重要任务。本研究采用全国性大规模抽样问卷调查数据,对全国流动人口的家庭空间“团聚-分离”及其影响因素进行研究。研究发现,一线城市和二线城市流动人口夫妇同城务工的比例较高,但携子女与父母共同外出的比例较低。流动人口家庭的“团聚-分离”状态受所在城市的城镇化发展水平的影响,流入地的城镇化率与流动人口与其子女和父母团聚的可能性均呈倒U型的曲线关系,而与流动人口配偶团聚的可能性呈正向线性关系。“家庭团聚”已成为流动人口重要的家庭发展诉求,本研究提出,在既定的城镇化模式下,城镇化发展进程存在流动人口家庭“团聚-离散”的平衡点,在平衡点以下城镇化外部环境以促进流动人口家庭团聚的正效应为主(“家庭团聚效应”),在平衡点以上外部环境将转为负效应为主,家庭将被迫离散以降低外部负效应(“家庭离散效应”)。正负效应转变的平衡点随着城镇化模式与阶段的转变而变化,改进城镇化模式、提升城镇化的经济社会效益将使平衡点向更高水平城镇化区间移动。

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF FLOATING POPULATION FAMILIES: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON A NATIONWIDE LARGE-SCALE SAMPLE SURVEY

The establishment of a "family-friendly" urbanization development model aims to address the spatial split of floating population families,so as to enable urban settlers to live a better life,which is an important task of China’s population urbanization in the new era.Based on the nationwide large-scale sample survey data,this paper explores the "reunion-discrete" of floating population families and its influencing factors in China.The paper finds that the first-tier cities and second-tier cities have a relatively high proportion of migrant spouses,but relatively low proportion of migrant families.The "reunion-discrete" status of floating population families is affected by the level of urbanization of relevant cities;the possibility of family reunion (migrants and their children,migrants and their parents) and urbanization rate forms an inverted U-shaped curve;and there is a positive linear relationship between the possibility of migrant couple reunion and urbanization rate."Family reunion" has become an important family development appeal of China’s floating population.This study confirms that under the established urbanization model,there is a "reunion-discrete" balance in the urbanization development process.Below the balance point,the urbanization process has a positive impact on the family reunion of migrants ("family reunion effect"),while above the balance point,the urbanization process has a negative impact on the family reunion of the floating population ("family discrete effect").The balance point will be changed with the transformation of the urbanization model and stages.The improvement of the urbanization process and its socio-economic benefits will shift the balance point to a higher level of urbanization.