改革开放以来中国城镇化的演进历程、特征与方向--基于人口、经济与制度视角

城镇化的演进历程深受人口结构、经济模式和制度安排的影响。通过对改革开放以来中国人口结构和经济模式的概览性考察,指出人口结构在未来10年内将发生人口机会窗口关闭和“人口拐点”来临两大结构性转变,经济模式正从出口和投资驱动转变为创新和内需驱动。结合政治经济体制的改革历程,在回顾中国城镇化进程的基础上,指出从双轨渐进改革下的“自下而上城镇化”,到市场经济体制改革下的“流动城镇化”,再到全面深化改革下的“新型城镇化”,城乡之间的制度性壁垒逐渐被打破,城乡居民权利不断趋于均等化,异质的城乡二元结构不断向同质的城乡一元结构演进;进而指出,中国城镇化进程未来有陷入“流动中的停滞”状态的趋势,并提出针对性的政筵建议。

EVOLUTION,CHARACTERISTICS, AND DIRECTION OF CHINA'S URBANIZATION SINCE THE REFORM AND OPENING UP:FROM THE PERSPECTIVES OF POPULATION,ECONOMY,AND INSTITUTION

The process of urbanization is deeply influenced by population structure, economic model, and institutional arrangements. Through an overview of China's population structure and economic model since the reform and opening up, it is pointed out that the population structure is undergoing two structural changes, that is, the closure of the "demographic window" and the forthcoming "demographic turning point," and the economic model is shifting from export and investment driven to innovation and domestic demand driven. Combining with the process of political and economic system reform since the reform and opening up, on the basis of reviewing the evolution of China's urbanization, it points out that, from the "bottom-up urbanization" during the period of double-track gradual reform, to the "mobile urbanization" during the period of market economic system reform, and then to the "new urbanization" under the context of comprehensively deepening reform, the institutional barriers between urban and rural areas have gradually been broken, the equalization of urban and rural residents' rights has been continuously improved, and the heterogeneous urban-rural dual structure has evolved into a homogeneous one-dimensional structure. Finally, it points out that China's urbanization process has a tendency of falling into "stagnation in the flow in the future, and proposes relative targeted policy suggestions.