基于插值和时温叠加原理的橡胶老化寿命预测方法

老化性能衰退建模与寿命预测是橡胶等高分子材料腐蚀和防护领域的研究重点之一，探索新型预测理论与方法在橡胶加速老化寿命预报中的应用，能够为橡胶件的性能监测、维护和更换提供理论依据和参考。传统的高分子材料老化建模方法存在模型依赖性强、参数识别难度高和精度不足等弊端。为了快速地对常温下橡胶的老化性能衰退规律进行准确的预测和评估，以室内高温加速老化数据为基础，提出采用插值的方法计算各不同加速温度下的伪失效寿命，在获得的伪失效寿命数据组的基础上，计算了各加速温度相对最低加速温度的性能衰退平移因子。进一步分析发现平移因子满足阿累尼乌斯方程，且各高温下加速老化的数据可以根据平移因子转换至参考温度下。在建立阿累尼乌斯加速模型的基础上，应用时温叠加原理，通过高温平移因子的线性外推获得常温下的平移因子，从而建立了常温下橡胶的老化性能衰退预测方程，并与实测常温下的橡胶老化性能衰退数据进行了对比。结果表明，综合应用插值法和时温叠加原理可以对橡胶加速老化数据进行快速处理，且由加速数据外推获得的常温性能衰退量与真实值的比较可知，结果均分布在2倍分散线以内，很好地满足了工程上的使用要求。其结果可为相关高分子材料加速老化数据处理与寿命预测提供参考。

Rubber Aging Life Prediction Method Based on Time-temperature Superposition Principle and Interpolation

It is one of the research focuses to study the aging performance degradation modeling and life prediction methods in the field of corrosion and protection for rubber and other polymer materials. Theoretical basis and reference would be provided for performance monitoring, maintenance and replacement of rubber parts through exploring the application of newly developed reliability theory, such as accelerated aging method. The traditional aging modeling method of polymer materials contains the disadvantages of strong model dependence, high difficulty in parameter identification and insufficient precision. In order to accurately predict and evaluate the aging degradation law of rubber at room temperature, the interpolation method was used to calculate the pseudo-failure life at different acceleration temperatures through analyzing indoor high temperature accelerated aging data. The performance degradation shift factors of each acceleration temperature relative to the minimum acceleration temperature were calculated according to the data set. It was found in further research that the shift factors satisfies the Arrhenius equation, and the data of accelerated aging at each high temperature could be converted to the reference temperature according to the shift factors. The principle of temperature superposition was applied by the established acceleration model, and the shift factor at room temperature was obtained by the linear extrapolation of the high temperature shift factors, thus the prediction equation for the aging performance degradation of rubber at normal temperature was developed, with which the accuracy was verified through the comparison with measured data. The results showed that the rubber accelerated aging data would be quickly processed by the proposed integrated method, and the normal temperature performance degradation result obtained by the proposed method is distributed in the two times dispersion line compared to measurement data, which meet the engineering requirements. This paper can provide reference for accelerated aging data processing and life prediction of related polymer materials.