装备故障预测与健康管理能力验证评估技术

预测和健康管理（PHM）是提升装备战斗力水平的重要保证，在装备设计阶段并行开展可测性设计是提高PHM能力的主要手段，而PHM技术的验证和评估是建立诊断与预测系统可信度的一个重要步骤。本文首先给出了面向PHM系统验证技术的国内外研究现状，然后，分析PHM指标的验证方法和技术框架。后面给出的PHM系统验证的指标体系，最后，点明了故障预测与健康管理系统验证与评估方法要关注的问题，明确了未来的发展趋势。

The validation and evaluation techniques of equipment PHM system

PHM is an important guarantee to improve the combat effectiveness of equipment. Concurrent testability design in equipment design stage is the main shortcoming of improving PHM capability. Verification and evaluation of PHM is an important step to establish the reliability of diagnostic and prognosis system. This paper presents the research status of testability design for PHM. Then, the validation method and technical framework of PHM indicators are analyzed. Later, the index system of PHM system verification is given. Finally, the paper points out the problems that should be paid attention to in the methods of fault prognostic and health management system verification and evaluation, and clarifies the development trend in the future.