施工导流系统综合风险分配机制的设计研究

本文在风险分析理论、效用理论以及熵理论的基础上，从水电工程整体角度研究各种不确定性因素的耦合关系和施工导流系统综合风险的刻划方法，在导流标准期望效用损失均衡的条件下建立导流系统综合风险的分配机制，将导流标准的制定与施工导流系统综合风险分配耦合起来，提出效用风险熵作为导流标准选择的综合评价指标，实现施工系统风险的协调均衡性与系统优化。实例分析说明，施工导流系统综合风险分配机制的研究方法和计算模型是可靠的、适用的。

Design of integrated risk distribution mechanism of construction diversion system

Risk of construction diversion system is not only related to the hydraulic uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainty, but also to the construction scheduling of dam body and its finishing duration. Based on risk analysis theory, utility theory and entropy theory, the coupling of dynamic integrated risk between hydraulic, hydrologic uncertainty and construction scheduling uncertainties, diversion standards design during diversion phase are analyzed from the side that hydroelectric construction system is an associated whole. The integrated risk distribution mechanism of construction diversion system is established under the guidance of expectation utility losing equilibrium principle, and utility risk entropy is put forward as comprehensive evaluation index of diversion standards, which helps to achieve harmonious risk balance and its optimization of hydroelectric construction system. The case study shows that the research of integrated risk distribution mechanism and its analytical method are reasonable and effective.