| 我国水电工程风险储备金计算方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 强茂山,蔡航清,李国华. 我国水电工程风险储备金计算方法研究[J]. 水力发电, 2003, 29(3): 1-5 |
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| 作者姓名： | 强茂山 蔡航清 李国华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学,北京,100084
2. 中国水电工程顾问集团公司,北京,100011 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了风险储备金的概念、思路和计算方法，来提高我国水电行业投资风险管理水平。在对国内若干水电工程投资数据资料进行统计分析的基础上，总结出其中存在的数值统计规律，提出了“成本均衡性”和“成本相关性”，并用来改进风险储备金的计算精度，提高风险储备金措施的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险管理 蒙特卡罗模拟法 风险储备金 成本均衡性 成本相关性 水电工程 |
| 文章编号： | 0559-9342(2003)03-0001-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-12-20 |
Research on the approach of estimating contingency reserve for the Investments of Hydraulic Engineering Project |
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| Abstract: | Contingency reserve is introduced to response risks in projects. The key issue is how to estimate the quantity of the reserve. To help the ratiocinating and estimating of the reserve, some principles of variation between the original estimate and the final cost were found on the basis of statistically analyzing the investments of some built hydraulic engineering project. The cost proportion and cost correlation were brought forward, which can highly improve the precision and utility of contingency reserve to response risks involved in the investment of hydraulic engineering project. |
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| Keywords: | risk management Monte-Carlo contingency reserve cost proportion cost correlation |
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