成熟探区勘探地质风险评价——以济阳坳陷为例

勘探地质风险是勘探风险中最基础的问题，对地质条件认识上的不确定性，决定了勘探地质风险伴随着油气勘探的全过程。济阳坳陷作为一个成熟探区，由于勘探程度和地质认识程度较高，当前的主要地质风险是隐蔽油气藏发育的构造和沉积等客观条件、隐蔽油气藏的识别及含油气性的判断、同一类型隐蔽油气藏的发育规模等。重点分析了勘探地质风险的相对性及不确定性的特点，以及不同勘探阶段地质风险产生的原因及变化规律。勘探地质风险评价应同时分析含油气概率和地质认识能力2个方面，并提出了相应的评价内容和评价方法。由于油气勘探工作具有极强的探索性，因而，勘探地质风险评价是勘探决策的有效支持手段，但并不一定是决定性的条件。

Exploration geology risk evaluation in mature exploration area—taking Jiyang Depression as an example

Exploration risk means the possibility and degree of the reason causing exploration unsuccessful. Exploration geology risk is the basic part of it. The uncertainty of geology conditions understanding determines that exploration geology risk exits during the full exploration process. Being a mature exploration area, Jiyang depression has a higher exploration degree and geology understanding degree, the main geology risks are the structure and deposition conditions for subtle reservoirs developing,subtle reservoirs identification,oil - gas - bearing possibility judgement, developing scales of the same type of subtle reservoirs, and so on. The characteristics of relativity and uncertainty, and the reasons and change rule of the geology risk at various explo-ration stages are analyzed on focus. Evaluation on the exploration geology risks should analyze petroleum probability and geology knowing ability at the same time, and the corresponding contents and methods are put forward. Because petroleum exploration is more exploratory, the exploration geology risk evaluation is an effective supporting means,but not a decisive condition in exploration decision making.