Attribution analysis of runoff change in the Beidasha River BasinEI北大核心CSCD

基于ABCD模型,提出了分离气候变化和人类活动对径流影响的分析框架,结合弹性系数法,在不同时间尺度上对北大沙河流域径流变化进行了归因分析。结果表明:从基准期(1980—1990年)到扰动期(2006—2018年),年尺度上ABCD模型和弹性系数法得到的气候变化导致径流的增加量分别为43.0mm和32.0mm,人类活动导致径流的减少量同气候变化导致的增加量相当,弹性系数法未考虑气象要素年内分配的变化,可能低估气候变化的影响；月尺度上,气候变化使径流在汛期增加了4.4~18.1mm,非汛期增加了1.3~2.2mm,在夏、秋两季占主导地位,人类活动使径流9月增加了11.3mm,其他月份减少了1.9~10.1mm,在春、冬两季占主导地位。

Attribution analysis of runoff change in the Beidasha River Basin

Based on the ABCD model, this study proposed an analysis framework to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change, and carried out an attribution analysis in the Beidasha River Basin on different time scales with this framework and the elastic coefficient method. The results show that, on an annual scale, the contributions of climate change to runoff increase from the base period (from 1980 to 1990) to the disturbed period (from 2006 to 2018) are 43.0 mm and 32.0 mm by the ABCD model and the elastic coefficient method, respectively, and the impact of human activities on runoff is comparable to that of climate change. The elastic coefficient method does not consider the intra-annual variation of meteorological forcings, which may underestimate the impact of climate change. On a monthly scale, climate change increases the runoff by 4.4 to 18.1.mm and 1.3 to 2.2.mm during flood season and nonflood season, respectively, which is dominant in summer and autumn; human activities increase runoff by 11.3 mm in September and decrease runoff by 1.9 to 10.1.mm in other months, which are dominant in spring and winter.