| 运用Monte Carlo解决开发区土地开发收益不确定性评价问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 叶巍,陈建国.运用Monte Carlo解决开发区土地开发收益不确定性评价问题[J].建筑经济,2008(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 叶巍 陈建国 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学经济与管理学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 在制订开发区土地开发方案时,不同开发方案会得到不同的总收益。但是由于开发时机、地块面积、地块价格会发生变化难以确定,从而导致土地总收益评估的不确定。本文运用蒙特卡罗方法解决开发区土地开发方案的总收益不确定性评价问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 收益最大化 不确定性评价 土地开发 蒙特卡罗模拟 |
Applying Monte Carlo Method to Solve Uncertainty Evaluation Problem of Total Income of Land Development Schemes |
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| YE Wei,CHEN Jianguo.Applying Monte Carlo Method to Solve Uncertainty Evaluation Problem of Total Income of Land Development Schemes[J].Construction Economy,2008(Z1). |
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| Authors: | YE Wei CHEN Jianguo |
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| Abstract: | While preparing development schemes for a development zone, different schemes may lead to get different total income. But, due to variance of timing, area and price of the plots, it's difficult to evaluating the total income. In this paper, it solves the problem of evaluating the total income which is usually uncertainty of the schemes by employing Monte Carlo method. |
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| Keywords: | maximizing income uncertainty evaluation land development Monte Carlo simulation |
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