Economic value of timely determination of unexpected decreases in detection of estrus using control charts

Total economic effects of decreased estrus detection efficiency (EDE) are a function of the economic loss per day and the length of the decrease. A stochastic dynamic dairy herd simulation model was used to determine whether estimates from permanently different EDE rates in herds of 100 and 1000 cows could approximate net returns due to temporary decreases in EDE. The default EDE was 65% and was either permanently or temporarily decreased to 55, 45, or 35%. Temporary decreases in EDE were assumed to continue until identified using cumulative sum or Shewhart control charts. Marginal changes in net return were greater at lower permanent rates of EDE, with losses ranging from 0.73 to 1.24 dollars per extra day open. Temporary decreases in EDE typically yielded smaller effects on net return than permanent decreases, but estimates were not consistently significantly different. However, temporary (30 to 960 d) decreases in EDE affected projected herd economic performance for several years after EDE was reset to 65%. Total losses in net return due to temporary decreases in EDE ranged from 4.44 dollars (accepting more false alarms) to 12.53 dollars (fewer false alarms) per cow for the 100-cow herd. For the 1000-cow herd, total losses in net return ranged from 0.95 to 10.43 dollars per cow. Total losses were not dependent on magnitude of decreased EDE because lower EDE could be detected earlier, thereby compensating for higher daily losses; for example, 35% EDE resulted in lower total losses than 55% EDE. Decreases to 55% EDE were detected sooner by cumulative sum charts, whereas decreases to 35% EDE were detected earlier by Shewhart charts. Both control charts used together can identify unexpected decreases in EDE more efficiently, thereby minimizing potential economic losses.