基于EROI与DEA方法的中国油气开采效率评价研究

油气行业是我国能源系统的重要支柱,对当前油气产业上游勘探开发环节进行综合效率评价具有重要意义。能源投入回报法(EROI)以净能源为分析重点,衡量能源开采效率;数据包络分析法(DEA)利用生产前沿面对比各决策单元的相对效率,评估各决策单元是否达到技术有效和规模有效。本文基于投入产出的角度,创新性地将两种方法结合在一起,对我国油气开采效率进行全面评价分析。结果显示,2003年-2017年间,我国EROI值总体呈上升趋势,且近几年增长速度加快;2015年后,我国油气开采行业的投入产出决策已实现相对优化。以上结果均证明我国油气开采效率正在不断提升,我国油气开采行业正处在良性发展之中,分析原因与天然气产量大幅提升、单位直接能耗以及油气勘探投资的减少有关。在未来,天然气将进一步发挥作用促进油气总产量的提升,勘探开发相关投资也将进一步增加,需要进行合理规划并有效利用行业投资,以保持高水平的勘探开发效率。

Evaluation of Oil and Gas Mining Efficiency in China Based on EROI and DEA

Oil and gas industry plays an important role of China"s energy system, so it is of great significance to evaluate the comprehensive efficiency of the upstream exploration of oil and gas industry. EROI focuses on net energy to measure the efficiency of energy exploitation; DEA uses the production frontier to compare the relative efficiency of each decision-making unit, and evaluate whether each decision-making unit is technically effective and scale effective. Based on the perspective of input-output, this paper innovatively combines the two methods to conduct a comprehensive analysis of China"s oil and gas production efficiency, and adjust the decision-making of non-effective years. The results show that from 2003 to 2017, EROI is on the rise, and the growth rate has accelerated in recent years; after 2015, the input-output decision of China"s oil and gas exploration industry has been relatively optimized. The above results all prove that China"s oil and gas exploitation efficiency is constantly improving, and China"s oil and gas exploitation industry is in an optimistic development. The reason is related to the substantial increase of natural gas production, the decrease of unit direct energy consumption and the decrease of oil and gas exploration investment. In the future, natural gas will play a further role in promoting the total oil and gas production, and the investment related to exploration will also be further increased, so it is necessary to make reasonable planning and make effective use of industry investment in order to maintain a high level of exploration and development efficiency.