高坝抗震安全理论发展趋势研究

水电工程是我国绿色清洁能源开发利用和防洪减灾的关键基础设施，在我国未来很长一段时间内都是重大基建工程的重要组成部分。高坝作为水利水电枢纽的关键组成部分，其运行期间的抗震安全极其重要。本文全面评述了国内外高坝抗震安全的发展历史和现状，详细分析了目前高坝抗震安全研究中存在的问题，指出我国大坝抗震设计及其研究水平已经处于国际先进水平，但300 m级高坝抗震安全问题仍面临着诸多技术挑战，抗震设计的理念和方法没有实质性的突破，已难适应发展迅速的高坝建设实践，可能随着建设工程进入运行阶段而带来隐患。针对目前现状，本文分4个方面阐述了高坝抗震安全研究今后的发展趋势和关键科学问题，明确了重点研究方向，为国家重大工程建设和可持续发展相关决策提供参考。

Study on development trend of seismic safety theory for high dams

Hydropower projects are key infrastructures in the development and utilization of China’s green and clean energy, flood control and disaster reduction, and they will be an important part of the major infrastructure projects for a long time. At present, high dams are core hydropower structures, and their seismic safety of operation is a crucial issue. This paper presents a comprehensive review on the developing history and current situation of high dam seismic safety in China and other countries, and examines thoroughly the problems existing in the current research. It indicates that the research on aseismic dam design in China has been already at a globally advanced level, but many technical challenges still exist in the design of 300 m high dams. Particularly, no substantial breakthrough has yet been achieved in the idea or methodology of aseismic designs, making it difficult to meet the requirements of rapidly developing practice of 300 m high dams. This may bring about potential risks as more and more projects begin to operate. In view of the present situation, this paper elaborates in four aspects the future development trend and key scientific problems in high dam seismic safety research, which would be useful for the decision-making of national key project construction and sustainable development.