| Abstract: | Discusses what the author considers to be unsatisfactory performance levels typical on clinical judgment tasks. Two underlying causes are identified: (1) problematic judgment habits such as underuse of base rates, assessment of covariation, and confirmatory strategies; and (2) human cognitive limitations such as the capacity to use additional information and performance on multiple-cue tasks. It is suggested that problematic habits and judgment limitations may be of central relevance to longstanding puzzles and difficulties within psychology, which include low diagnostic reliability and validity, the comparative success of psychometric instruments and diagnostic strategies, problems in uncovering specific treatment effects, and the minimal gains accrued through experience. The application of judgment findings to diagnosis, treatment, and the interpretation of feedback is considered. Corrective measures that are likely to improve judgment accuracy are discussed, particularly testing for diagnostic signs, use of disconfirmatory strategies, and recognition of predictive uncertainty. (79 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) |
