岩体等效抗剪强度概率特征值评估在边坡稳定性可靠度分析中的应用

为消除因采用Hock-Brown准则中间变量而导致评估等效抗剪强度参数概率特征时产生累积误差,针对Hoek-Brown准则各变量具可变性和不确定性,提出应直接由基本变量人手来评估.在简要介绍Hoek-Brown准则基础上,选用了Rosenblueth点估计法和Monte-Carlo抽样法对边坡岩体的等效抗剪强度概率特征值以及边坡稳定性可靠度和破坏概率进行了对比计算分析.尽管2种方法计算结果差异很小,但是与Monte-Carlo抽样法相比,Roseriblueth点估计法计算量明显减小.而Rosenbheth点估计法较为简单,因此工程中可以用它来估计岩体有关参数概率特征值、稳定性可靠度和破坏概率.

Probability Estimation of Equivalent Shear Strengths for Rock Masses and Its Application in Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability

In order to eliminate the accumulative probability errors resulting from using indirect variables in the Hoek-Brown criterion, the equivalent Mohr-Coulomb parameter probabilities were estimated directly from its basic variables. On the basis of a brief introduction of the Hoek-Brown criterion, the Rosenblueth point estimate and Monte-Carlo methods were selected to calculate the equivalent Mohr-Coulomb parameter probabilities of rock mass for a slope and the reliability index and failure probability of slope stability by two different methods as well. Although only a little difference existed in the computational results calculated by the two methods, but only a small amount of calculations are needed in the Rosenblueth point estimate method. Because the Rosenblueth point estimate method is simple, it can be used to estimate parameter probability, stability reliability and failure probability related to rock mass in engineering.