国内外财务预警方法的研究综述

财务预警方法是指借助企业财务指标和非财务指标体系来判别企业财务状况.在国外的研究中,它通常包括一元判定模型、多元判定模型、多元逻辑回归模型、多元概率比回归模型、人工网络模型等类型,而以前3种类型为主.国内关于上市公司财务预警方法的研究主要是借鉴国外的模型,总体上分为单模型研究方法和多模型比较研究方法,存在着方法单一、理论框架不完善、模型适用条件不准确三个方面的主要缺陷,亟待在分行业研究和企业自身预警两个方面取得突破.

Research on Domestic and Abroad Financial Alert Methods

Financial alert is that uses business finance and non-business finance indicators to identify the financial situation of company.It usually consists of six different types,namely: univariate method,MDA,logic regression method,multivariate probit regression method,ANN and so on.The alert systems of domestic companies manily use the experience of foreign companies for reference,and can be divided into single-model and multi-model methods in a whole,but it also has three serious faults to be tackled in the special industry and the alert system of company itself.