Modeling the profitability of power production from short-rotation woody crops in Sub-Saharan Africa |
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Affiliation: | 1. 4906 Pondloop DR, Dublin, OH 43016, United States;2. Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, 304 D. Cheatham Hall, Blacksburg, United States;1. Department of Chemical Engineering, State University of Maringá, Av. Colombo, 5790, Bloco D90, CEP 87020900, Maringá, PR, Brazil;2. Centre for Process Systems Engineering (CPSE), Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom;3. Departament d’Enginyeria Química, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Av. Països Catalans, 26, 43007, Tarragona, Spain;1. Wu Xi Research Center of Environmental Science and Engineering, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province 214153, China;2. School of Internet of Things Engineering, Jiangnan University, Wuxi, Jiangsu Province 214122, China |
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Abstract: | Increasing electricity supply in Sub-Saharan Africa is a prerequisite to enable economic development and reduce poverty. Renewable sources such as wood-fueled power plants are being promoted for social, environmental and economic reasons. We analyzed an economic model of a vertically integrated system of short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) plantations coupled with a combined heat and power (CHP) plant under Sub-Saharan African conditions. We analyzed a 5 MW (electric) base-case scenario under Ugandan conditions with a 2870 ha Eucalyptus grandis plantation and a productivity of 12 t ha?1 y?1 (oven dry basis) under a 5-year rotation. Plant construction and maintenance constituted 27% and 41% of total costs, respectively. Plantation productivity, carbon credit sales as well as land, fuel, labor & transport costs played an economic minor role. Highly influential variables included plant efficiency & construction costs, plantation design (spacing and rotation length) and harvest technologies. We conclude that growing 12–24 t ha?1 y?1 at a five year rotation can produce IRR's of 16 and 19% over 30-years, respectively. Reducing rotation length significantly reduced short-term financial risk related to frontloaded costs and relatively late revenues from electricity sales. Long-term feed-in tariffs and availability of a heat market played a significant economic role. The base-case scenario's 30-year IRR dropped from 16% to 9% when a heat market was absent. Results suggest a leveling-off of economies-of-scale effects above 20 MW (electric) installations. Implementation-related research needs for pilot activities should focus on SRWC productivity and energy life cycle analysis. |
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