大宗矿产品价格预测方法的发展综述

大宗矿产是国民经济建设中具有举足轻重地位的主体型矿产,准确预测大宗矿产品价格和趋势,对于保障国家资源能源安全,推动经济全球化具有重要意义.方法 的选择是进行大宗矿产品价格预测的核心,而随着方法日益多样化、复杂化、学科交叉化,合理地对预测方法进行分类的难度不断加大.本文通过对相关文献进行分析,梳理了大宗矿产品价格预测方法...

Review on the development of price forecasting methods for bulk mineral products

Bulk minerals are the important minerals in the economic and social development. It is of great significance to select reasonable prediction methods and accurately predict the price of bulk mineral products, which is of great significance to ensure the safety of resources and energy. This paper analyzes the related literature, combs the development history of the price forecasting method of bulk mineral products, and summarizes the characteristics of the development of the forecasting method. According to the development trend and characteristics of bulk mineral product price forecasting, the existing forecasting methods are divided into four classifications: traditional forecasting method, econometric forecasting method, artificial intelligence forecasting method and hybrid model forecasting method, basing on the four elements of forecasting accuracy, discipline, technology and formation background, and the various methods are reviewed. Combined with the background of interdisciplinary, the paper puts forward the conclusion and prospect of the sharp increase of price forecast difficulty, outstanding advantages of new classification, the mainstream of mixed forecasting model and correct understanding of the limitations of method model.