焊接结构承压管道有限元与可靠性分析

针对工业设备上常见的焊接结构承压管道，应用模糊灰关联FTA安全系统工程理论，以水火管锅壳锅炉为例，通过对失效致因和故障模式的研究，建立以焊接结构承压管道失效为顶事件的模糊灰关联FTA模型，利用有限元法建立焊接结构承压管道模型辅助分析对其更深层次的系统性影响，并综合考虑工况环境、外部载荷等多因素耦合作用，确定导致事故的主要潜在风险项，为承压管道设备安全保障活动的经济决策提供依据。研究结果表明，以水火管锅壳锅炉的“焊接结构承压管道”失效故障模式的发生概率约为8.19%，系统的可靠度约为91.81%。

Finite Element and Reliability Analysis for Welded Structure Pressure Pipe

The welded structure pressure pipe is commonly used in industrial equipment, by adopting fuzzy grey relational FTA safety system engineering theory, taking fire and water tube shell boiler as an example, through analysis on the failure cause and failure mode, it established the fuzzy grey correlation FTA model taking pressure pipeline failure as top event. It utilized finite element method to establish welded structure pressure pipeline model, and used this model to conduct auxiliary analysis for deeper systemic effects. It also determined the main potential risks caused accidents, by overall considering operating condition, many factors coupling effect such as the external load, which provides a basis for economic decision of pressure pipeline equipment security activities. The research results indicated that the probability of occurrence taking fire and water tube shell boiler“welded structure pressure pipe”as failure mode is about 8.19%, the reliability of the system is about 91.81%.