十一五期间江苏省全社会用电量的统计预测

建立了江苏省全社会电力需求量的主成分回归模型,得到主成分后,根据数据自身的特点,分别选择了二次多项式、三次多项式和生长模型,将主成分与全社会用电量2个变量进行回归,得到预测模型,然后根据江苏省"十一五"规划的要求,在单位能耗降低20%、地区GDP年均增长率分别为12%、12.8%、15%的情况下,对江苏省2006～2010年的全社会电力需求量进行了预测.并分析了各模型的优缺点.

Power demand forecast of Jiangsu during "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period

The principal component regression model of power demand in Jiangsu is established.According to characteristics of the data,the quadratic polynomial,cubic polynomial,and growth model were selected,and the two variants of principal component and power demand were regressed.The forecast model was then obtained,and based on the requirements of Jiangsu "Eleventh Five-Year Plan",the power demand of the province from 2006 to 2010 was forecasted respectively under the conditions that the specific energy consumption is reduced by 20% and the annual regional GDP growth is 12%,12.8%,and 15%.The merits and demerits of each model are also analyzed.