改进的偏最小二乘法在青海省农业用水预测中的应用

根据2000—2009年影响青海省农业用水的11个因子的基础数据,建立偏最小二乘回归模型,考虑到模型的实用性和准确性,运用后退法对偏最小二乘法进行改进,剔除了5个不需要的变量,得到了拟合精度更高的结果。选取2010—2013年数据进行模型检验。结果表明:运用偏最小二乘法预测的结果与实际情况贴近,并且改进的模型的贴近度更高。通过模型的应用,可以看到偏最小二乘法在青海省农业用水预测中有较好的应用价值,并且改进后的偏最小二乘法简化了模型,提高了预测精度,为青海省的农业用水预测提供了依据。

Application of improved partial least squares method to prediction of agricultural water consumption in Qinghai Province

Based on the basic data of 11 factors that influenced the agricultural water consumption of Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2009, a partial least squares regression model was established. Considering the practicality and accuracy of the model, the backward method was used to improve the partial least squares method. Five unnecessary variables were excluded, and a higher prediction accuracy was obtained. Data from 2010 to 2013 were selected to verify the model. The results show that the prediction using the partial least squares method agreed with the actual situation, and the improved model showed even greater agreement. Therefore, the partial least squares method is highly applicable to the prediction of the agricultural water consumption of Qinghai Province. The improved partial least squares method greatly simplifies the original model, improves the prediction accuracy, and provides a basis for the prediction of the agricultural water consumption of Qinghai Province.