黑河流域1957-2008年径流变化特性分析

根据黑河干流莺落峡站和正义峡站1957-2008年52年的实测年径流资料,应用累积距平、滑动平均、M ann-Kendall非参数统计检验和R/S分析等多种方法,分析了黑河流域年径流变化规律。结果表明:①总体上,莺落峡站年径流存在增加趋势,正义峡站年径流存在减少趋势,同时两站径流趋势具有一定的持续性;②1961年和1998年是莺落峡站径流量突变开始的年份,1957-1961年间,径流量处于明显增加阶段,1962-1997年间,径流量出现了增长率逐渐减小、径流量减小及径流量微弱增加等阶段,1998年后,径流量再次出现明显增加的现象。③20世纪80年代中期以前,莺落峡、正义峡两站径流量变化规律较为一致,均是丰水年和枯水年交替出现,丰枯转化较为平衡。20世纪80年代末至90年代末,莺落峡站径流量处于增加的趋势,而正义峡站呈现显著减少趋势,主要是这一阶段中游用水量急剧增加,两站径流量差值呈显著增加趋势。进入21世纪由于国家在黑河流域实施了水量统一调度,两站径流量差值保持平稳态势。

Analysis of variation character of annual runoff in Heihe River basin from 1957 to 2008

Based on the 52 years(1957-2008)data of annual measured runoff in Yingluoxia and Zhengyixia stations of Heihe River,the paper analyzed the variation rule of annual runoff in the Heihe River basin by using the multi-methods included accumulative departure curve,moving average,the Mann-Kendall mutation test and R/S analysis.The results showed: ①Generally,the tendency of the annual runoff was increasing in Yingluoxia station,but it was decreasing in Zhengyixia station both with persistence to a certain degree;②The runoff in Yingluoxia began to change suddenly in 1961 and 1998.From 1957-1961 it increased obviously.Runoff underwent three stages of reduction of grouth rate,reducing and weak increasement from 1962-1997,it appeared again the phenomenon of obvious increasement after 1998;③The variation rule of the annual runoff was consistent in Yingluoxia and Zhengyixia before the mid 20th eighties,from the late eighties to the late ninties the annual runoff was increasing in Yingluoxia,but it was decreasing obviously in Zhengyixia.Annual runoff differences between Yingluoxia and Zhengyixia kept raising remarkably.The runoff differences was stable due to the water re-distributed in Heihe River basin in 21th century.