基于Petri网的装备系统任务成功概率仿真

通过对装备系统在不同任务剖面下的成功性的评估,可以反映装备保障系统的整体保障效能。由于影响任务成功性的因素较多,关系复杂,目前还没有相应的数学公式进行解析,因此采取系统模拟仿真的方法来实现对装备系统任务成功概率的评估。在建立装备系统的保障模型、任务模型与基于Petri网的仿真模型的基础上,可以进行有效的仿真评估,对装备保障工作具有积极意义。文章首先分别介绍了各模型的构建、仿真模型的运行机理；其次介绍了评估系统的框架及其功能组成；最后提供了在某自行高炮系统数据基础上的仿真实例。

Mission Completion Success Probability Simulation of Materiel System Based on Petri Net

The analysis of the efficiency of materiel support system (MSS) can be realized by evaluating the mission completion success probability (MCSP) of materiel system in complex mission profile. For MCSP is affected by so many factors, and the relationship among them is difficult to express, we decide to implement that by using the System Simulation. With the support model and mission model of materiel system, and the simulation model based on Petri Net, the simulation is evaluated effectively, that's profitably to improve the MSS. The paper introduces the construction and the action mechanism of models firstly. Then the framework of the system and function of modules are expressed. At last, a simulation example of this evaluation system and a portion of procedure are provided.