Reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization of roadway horizontal curves using a first-order reliability method

This article presents reliability analysis and reliability-based optimization of roadway minimum radius design based on vehicle dynamics, mainly focusing on exit ramps and interchanges. The performance functions are formulated as failure modes of vehicle rollover and sideslip. To accurately describe the failure modes, analytical models for rollover and sideslip are derived considering nonlinear characteristics of vehicle behaviour using the commercial software TruckSim. The probability of an accident is evaluated using the first-order reliability method and numerical studies are conducted using a single-unit truck model. To propose a practical application for the study, the reliability analysis for the minimum radius recommended by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials is conducted. The results show that, even if there are deviations from assumed design conditions of the current design guideline, the proposed design method can guarantee given target margins of safety against rollover and sideslip. Based on the reliability analysis, reliability-based design optimization is carried out and the results indicate new recommendations for minimum radii satisfying given target reliability levels.