低影响开发设施组合的水文模拟及不确定性分析

在海绵城市建设中,通过多种低影响开发(LID)设施的组合应用可实现对城市雨水径流的调控。针对LID设施组合的水文模拟存在高维参数估值不确定性分析的难题,以深圳环保产业园LID示范区为例,构建LID组合设施的暴雨洪水管理模型(SWMM),结合Morris筛选法与DREAM算法,对不同降雨条件下模型中不同设施、不同类型参数的灵敏度和不确定性进行分析。结果表明,位于下游的设施参数灵敏度普遍高于上游设施,排水及导水相关参数灵敏度相对较高;下游设施的排水参数后验分布峰值明显,参数不确定性小;中等强度降雨事件模拟结果的不确定性比高强度降雨事件要小。

Hydrological Modeling of Low Impact Development Combined Facilities and Its Uncertainty Analysis

In the construction of sponge city,the low impact development(LID) combined facilities can be used to control the rainfall runoff.But there is a large uncertainty of high-dimensional modeling with combined LID facilities.The storm water management model(SWMM) of LID combined facilities in a LID demonstration area of Shenzhen Environmental Protection Industrial Park was constructed,and the sensitivity and uncertainty of different facilities and different types of parameters in the model under different rainfall conditions were analyzed by the Morris screening method and differential evolution adaptive metropolis(DREAM) algorithm.The sensitivity of the downstream facilities parameters was generally higher than that of the upstream facilities parameters,and the sensitivity of drainage and conductivity related parameters was relatively high.The parameters of the downstream facilities had obvious peak posterior distribution and the parameter uncertainty was small.The uncertainty of the simulation results of moderate rainfall events was less than that of heavy rainfall events.