在精细化气象要素下输电线路覆冰预测预警研究

南方地区冬季输电线路自然覆冰是线路运维难题和灾害预防课题，提升该地区线路覆冰预测预警能力迫切需要。本文在分析国内外输电线路覆冰预测模型及工程应用问题基础上，总结提炼出精细化气象要素下基于统计-经验知识确定覆冰等级方法进而建立覆冰等级区划，再结合线路自然环境的地形和气象因素构建相应较强泛化能力的覆冰等级模型，从而建立有效的线路覆冰预测预警工作机制。2年应用实践验证，该模型及工作机制能准确地预测预警线路覆冰状态。

Warning of Overhead Line Icing under Refined Meteorological Elements

The natural icing of overhead lines in southern region is a maintenance problem and disaster prevention subject, and it is urgently needed to improve the prediction and warning ability of overhead line icing in this area. After the analysis to the worldwide icing prediction model of overhead line, this paper summarizes the icing levels method and icing grading division in refined meteorological elements based on the statistics-empirical knowledge, furthermore coupled with the terrain and meteorological factors of natural environment to construct the corresponding icing grading model with stronger generalization ability, thereby establishes the efficient forecast and warning mechanisms of overhead line icing. The 2-year application validates that this model and working mechanism can accurately predict and warn the icing state of overhead line.