基于HMM的设备剩余寿命预测框架及其实现

在设备退化状态识别中剩余寿命预测是设备实施状态维修的一个重要内容,也是实现真正意义上精确维修的前提和基础。隐马尔可夫模型作为一种统计分析算法,具有较强的模式分类能力,能够对设备退化过程进行有效识别。但是传统隐马尔可夫模型状态持续时间分布的不合理性,不能直接用于剩余寿命的预测。考虑状态识别和剩余寿命预测的连续性,应用隐马尔可夫模型的改进算法——隐半马尔可夫模型,构建设备剩余寿命的预测框架,实现了在设备退化状态识别基础上的剩余寿命预测。通过对滚动轴承实测数据的仿真试验,对框架进行了仿真验证。仿真结果表明框架能够有效识别设备退化过程和实现剩余寿命的预测。

Implementation of Equipment Residual Life Prediction Framework Based on Hidden Markov Model

Prediction of equipment residual life based on the recognition of degradation is the important aspect in a condition-based maintenance which indeed actualizes the maintenance in a proper time.As a statistic analysis algorithm,the Hidden Markov model(HMM) with well capability in patter classification has a successful application in identification of equipment degradation state.But a tradition HMM in which the time duration distribution of hidden states is not reasonable can not be directly used to prognostic...