计及不确定因素的梯级水电站短期优化调度

以一定时期内期望发电效益最大化为目标,采用马尔可夫链对梯级水电站机组未来调度时段的预想故障及上网电价进行概率预测,构建了一种新的梯级水电站短期概率优化调度的模型,并且采用服从正态分布的负荷波动来分析时变负荷对优化调度的影响.该模型全面考虑了梯级水电站蓄水量、弃水量、水位、发电引用流量等约束条件,实现了机组运行状态概率预...

Short-term Optimal Scheduling of Cascade Hydroelectric Stations Considering Uncertainties

Aiming at attaining the maxim return of power generation in a specific period,this paper establishes a novel probabilistic optimal scheduling model of cascade hydroelectric stations by forecasting probabilities of contingency states and electricity price in the next dispatching period by means of Markov chain.In addition,the influences of time-varying load are analyzed by adopting the load subjected to normal distribution.The detailed representation of cascade hydroelectric stations,which comprise water vol...