| 冲击地压电磁辐射序列的ARMA预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘贞堂,刘晓斐,王恩元. 冲击地压电磁辐射序列的ARMA预测[J]. 中国矿业大学学报, 2009, 38(3) |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘贞堂 刘晓斐 王恩元 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学,安全工程学院,江苏,徐州,221116 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学专项基金，国家重点基础研究发展规划(973计划)，国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)，国家科技支撑计划，教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划，中国矿业大学青年科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 为分析冲击地压发生前的电磁辐射前兆规律,以鹤岗南山矿237工作面"1.12冲击"电磁辐射前兆序列为实例,运用SAS统计分析软件检验序列的随机性和平稳性,建立了适用于该序列的ARMA拟合模型,并预测了序列未来12期的监测值.结果表明,该序列是一个平稳非白噪声序列,可以用AR(3)模型来拟合和预测,模型预测值和真实值的相似程度在66%左右,一致性较高.ARMA模型能够提取电磁辐射序列中的前兆信息,定量描述序列的变化趋势.
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| 关 键 词： | 冲击地压 电磁辐射 时间序列 前兆 ARMA模型 |
An ARMA Prediction Model for Electromagnetic Radiation Data Preceeding a Rock Burst |
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| LIU Zhen-tang,LIU Xiao-fei,WANG En-yuan. An ARMA Prediction Model for Electromagnetic Radiation Data Preceeding a Rock Burst[J]. Journal of China University of Mining & Technology, 2009, 38(3) |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhen-tang LIU Xiao-fei WANG En-yuan |
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| Abstract: | SAS statistical analysis software was used to test the randomness of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) observed during the "1.12 rock burst" of the number 237 working face in the Nanshan coal mine. An auto-regressive-moving-average (ARMA) model was fitted to the EMR data and used to forecast twelve observations into the future. The results show that the rock burst EMR data are non-white noise, stationary and can be fitted with an AR(3) model. Com-paring the model EMR values to the real data, the similarity degree is about 66%. An ARMA model can use data preceding an event to describe changes in the EMR trends quantitatively. |
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| Keywords: | rock burst electromagnetic radiation (EMR) time series precursor ARMA model |
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