基于多源离散数据的复杂系统可靠性评定方法

基于复杂跳伞装备在性能试验和实际训练过程中测试数据少、数据来源多、数据具有离散性的特点,从系统工程的理念出发,提出了一种系统级的Bayes可靠性评估方法。运用系统工程的理念与方法对复杂跳伞装备的系统结构进行层级划分,对采集的数据进行融合分析与处理;对系统分解单元进行分类,确定数据类型,并对各种不同分布类型的单元进行Bayes可靠性分析;利用系统综合方法对单元可靠性信息进行横向或纵向综合。利用金字塔式可靠性综合评定程序对系统可靠性进行评估,并通过仿真算例说明了评估方法的合理性。该方法为开展复杂系统的可靠性评定提供了实用的工程化手段,极具应用价值。

Reliability Assessment Method for Complex System Equipment Based on Multi-Source Discrete Data

Based on the characteristics of complex parachute equipment in the process of performance test and actual training,such as very few test data,many data sources and data discreteness,a system level Bayes reliability assessment method is proposed from the concept of system engineering.The system structure of complex parachute equipment is divided into layers by using the concept and method of system engineering,and the collected data are integrated,analyzed and processed.The system decomposition units are classified to determine the data types,and Bayes reliability analysis is carried out on various distribution types of units.The system synthesis method is used to synthesize the unit reliability information horizontally or vertically.The pyramid reliability comprehensive evaluation program is used to evaluate the system reliability,and the rationality of the evaluation method is illustrated by a simulation example.This method provides a practical engineering method for reliability evaluation of complex systems and has significant application value.