基于云理论的区域水资源承载力评价模型研究

针对水资源承载力评价中存在不确定性的特征,将云模型引入到区域水资源承载力综合评价研究领域中,利用云理论实现评价等级的定性与定量转换。将云综合评判模型应用于海河流域的水资源承载力研究,结果表明:海河流域水资源承载力为"较弱"等级;南水北调中线调水100亿m~3后,海河流域水资源承载力介于"中等"和"较弱"等级之间,改善不明显。该模型可以将不确定性概念的模糊性和随机性有机地结合在一起,既用隶属函数描述了评价等级的模糊性,又利用超熵概念充分考虑了隶属度本身存在的随机性,是一种有效可行的水资源承载力评价模型。

Study on cloud theory-based regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation model

Aiming at the characteristics of the uncertainties within the evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity，a cloud model is introduced into the study field of the comprehensive evaluation on regional water resources carrying capacity，and then the qualitative and quantitative transformations of the evaluation grade are realized with the cloud theory. Applying the cloud comprehensive evaluation model to the study of the water resources carrying capacity of Haihe River Basin，the result shows that water resources carrying capacity in Haihe River basin is weak, which will become between moderate and weak by increasing 1.0×1010m3 water supply from the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The model can integrate both the fuzziness and the randomness of the concept of the uncertainty together，i.e.，not only describes the fuzziness of the evaluation grade with the membership function，but also fully considers the randomness of the existence of the membership degree itself，thus is an effective and feasible water resources carrying capacity evaluation model.