基于动态故障树的CTCS-3级ATP系统可靠性分析简

 针对传统的可靠性分析方法分析CTCS-3级ATP系统动态失效问题的不足，提出采用动态故障树分析其可靠性。首先，分析系统的结构和功能建立动态故障树模型；其次，采用深度优先最左遍历算法搜索动态故障树模型，得到独立的子树；最后，在引入可修系统可靠性指标基础上，采用解析法和马尔科夫矩阵迭代法求解子树，结合分层迭代方法对动态故障树分析法改进，以减小运算量，使得上述可靠性指标能用于CTCS-3级ATP系统的可靠性评估。计算所得可靠性指标与可靠性框图分析得到的结果对比表明：动态故障树能够更好地描述系统的冗余性和容错性等特点，提高了可靠性指标的精度。

Reliability analysis on ATP system of CTCS-3 based on dynamic fault tree

According to the drawback of traditional methods of reliability analysis describing the dynamic failure problem of the ATP system of CTCS-3，dynamic fault tree was used to analyze the reliability of the system. Firstly，the dynamic fault tree model was established by analyzing the structure and function of the system. Secondly，the depth-first left-most traversal algorithm was used to search on the dynamic fault tree model to obtain the independent subtrees. Finally，after introducing the reliability indexes of repairable system，the analytic method and Markov matrix iteration method were adopted to solve subtrees. The hierarchical iteration method was applied to improve dynamic fault tree analysis method to reduce the quantity of computation so that the reliability indexes could be used for reliability evaluation of the ATP system of CTCS-3.Comparing the results of above method with the results of the reliability block diagram method，it is show that dynamic fault tree analysis can describe the characteristics of redundancy and fault-tolerance of system better and the accuracy of reliability indexes is improved.