1992-2007年广州市能源消费碳排放研究

根据《IPCC2006国家温室气体清单指南》中的碳排放计算公式和能源碳排放系数缺省值，计算了广州市1992-2007年能源消费碳排放量。结果表明，1992年以来碳排放总量和人均量逐年增加，碳排放强度则不断下降，由1992年的4.19 t/万元减少到2007年的2.75 t/万元，年均减少率为2.28%。碳排放结构分析表明，广州市以煤炭为主的能源消费结构并未得到有效改善；从经济结构来看，第一产业碳排放强度基本保持不变，第二产业碳排放强度先升后降，第三产业和生活消费则迅速增加。通过相关分析认为人口和经济的增长是影响碳排放量增长的主要因素，而能源强度的下降则可以明显抑制碳排放量增长。因此，建议通过控制人口数量、调整产业结构、降低能源强度和提高能源利用效率等措施来降低二氧化碳排放量。

CARBON EMISSION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN GUANGZHOU DURING 1992 TO 2007

 This paper, according to 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, calculates the 1992-2007 carbon emission in Guangzhou, with results indicating an increase in gross carbon emission and carbon emission per capita while a decrease in carbon emission intensity, from 0.419 kg/RMB in 1992 to 0.275 kg/RMB in 2007, an average 2.28% in yearly decrease. The carbon emission structure reveals that Guangzhou energy consumption structure chiefly on coal has little change From economic structure, carbon emission intensity keeps little change in the first industry, rises followed by falling in the second industry, and rises rapidly in the third industry and in living consumption.An accretion in population and economy are two factors for carbon emission, while an decrease in energy intensity can effectively control the carbon emission. This paper gives suggestions decreasing carbon emission by controlling population, adjusting industrial structures, decreasing energy intensity and increasing energy use efficiency.