| 基于改进灰色模型的电力负荷中长期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋燕,谢林,李子清,陈刚. 基于改进灰色模型的电力负荷中长期预测[J]. 重庆电力高等专科学校学报, 2011, 16(5): 86-88 |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋燕 谢林 李子清 陈刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 重庆电力高等专科学校电力工程系,重庆,400053
2. 重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆,400044 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于电力系统中长期负荷预测的特点,针对常规灰色预测模型存在的不足,提出一种基于数据平滑处理,以及线性回归残差修正的改进灰色预测方法。对某地区算例比较和分析表明,本方法可明显提高中长期负荷预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 负荷预测 线性回归 改进灰色模型 |
Medium and Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on the Improved Grey Model |
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| JIANG Yan,XIE Lin,LI Zi-qing,CHEN Gang. Medium and Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on the Improved Grey Model[J]. Journal of Chongqing Electric Power College, 2011, 16(5): 86-88 |
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| Authors: | JIANG Yan XIE Lin LI Zi-qing CHEN Gang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Electric Power Department of Chongqing Electric Power College,Chongqing 400053,China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment and System Security and New Technology of Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the analyses of the characteristics of medium and long term load forecasting in power system and the shortcomings of conventional grey prediction model,this essay proposes a method based on data smoothing and residual correction which is based on linear regression,to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting.Numerical examples and analyses in a region validate that the improved prediction model can obviously improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term power load forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | grey model load forecasting linear regression improved grey model |
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