港口动力煤价格模型

从替代、需求、供给、库存、惯性5个方面创建了影响我国港口动力煤价的有关因素的计量模型。利用2005年1月至2012年6月的月度数据揭示了相关因素的量化影响作用,发现上月煤价、煤炭生产成本以及港口库存等是最为显著的影响因素。在此基础上,考虑到近几年煤炭市场的剧烈波动和明显的季节性特征,一方面展开了以2008年发生的国际金融危机为临界点的对比分析工作,另一方面提出了以铁路货运周转量的周期性变化为参考的淡旺季划分方法,揭示了各影响因素在淡旺季对港口动力煤价的差异作用,以及这种差异性在危机前后的变化。最后,综合宏观经济环境、煤炭市场力量演化以及行为经济学等原因对模型结果进行了深刻剖析,提出了有益的管理启示。

Price model of port steam coal

An econometric model was established to study factors from five aspects of substitution,demand,supply,inventory,and inertia which will affect Chinese port steam coal price.Via monthly data from January 2005 to June 2012,the model disclosed quantitative effects of the proposed factors,and pointed out that the last-month steam coal price,coal production cost and coal inventories at ports are the most significant factors.Considering fluctuated coal market and notable seasonality of coal demand in the recent years,effects of the factors on the port steam coal prices were compared before and after the international financial crisis of 2008,and a method to divide coal demand into slack-season and boom-season was proposed in terms of the periodicity of railway freight turnover,so as to disclose differential effects of the factors on the steam coal price between the both categories and change of the difference before and after the financial crisis.At the end,empirical results were further analyzed associated macroeconomic trend,evolution of coal market powers and behavioral economic perspectives,and informative managerial insights were discussed.