基于生长曲线与气温累积效应的气象负荷预测

夏季受高温天气的影响,由降温设备所引起的气象负荷日趋变大.针对气象负荷获取困难以及负荷预测精度不高的问题,提出一种新的气象负荷预测方法.首先,为获得准确的气象负荷数据,采用生长曲线来描述基础负荷的增长特性,通过剔除基础负荷来获得气象负荷数据;其次,考虑到夏季高温天气的气温累积效应,需要对高温天气的日最高温度进行修正,提...

Meteorological Load Forecasting Based on Growth Curve and Temperature Accumulation Effect

The power load obviously increases in summer due to significant increase of air temperature.In allusion to the difficulty of obtaining meteorological loads and the low forecasting accuracy of meteorological load,a new method to forecast meteorological load was proposed.Firstly,to obtain accurate data of meteorological load,the growth curve was applied to describe the growth characteristics of baseload and by means of eliminating baseload the data of meteorological load could be obtained.Secondly,considering the temperature accumulation effect of high-temperature weather in summer,daily highest temperature in the high-temperature weather had to be revised,thus a meteorological load based temperature correction method and corresponding model were proposed.Finally,a particle swarm optimization-extreme learning machine load forecasting model was established to forecast the total load and meteorological load.Analysis results of numerical example show that based on the growth curve and temperature accumulation effect the load forecasting results are improved,and the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and model are verified.