基于贝叶斯最优最劣和改进物元可拓的特高压输电工程综合效益评价

由于中国能源消费与能源分布格局的不一致性，建设具有远距离、大容量以及低损耗的特高压输电工程具有重要的意义，而对特高压输电工程效益的评估是判断该工程能否实现预期目标、满足工程建设要求的关键。从运行、财务、环境以及社会4个维度构建了特高压输电工程综合效益评估指标体系，提出一种基于贝叶斯最优最劣和改进物元可拓方法的特高压输电工程综合效益评价模型，前者结合贝叶斯理论和最优最劣模型确定各指标的权重，后者通过对传统物元可拓方法进行改进，从而实现对特高压输电工程综合效益的等级评定。通过对某±800 kV特高压直流输电工程实证研究，结果表明该工程的综合效益处于“较好”级别。算例结果证明了该模型用于特高压输电工程综合效益评价的科学性与有效性。

Comprehensive Performance Evaluation of UHV Power Transmission Project Based on Bayesian Best-Worst Method and Improved Matter-Element Extension Model

Due to the inconsistency between energy consumption centers and energy production distribution patterns in China, it is of great significance to build UHV power transmission projects that are characterized with long distance, large capacity and low loss. The performance evaluation of an UHV power transmission project is the key to judging whether the project can achieve the expected goals and meet the requirements of project construction. A comprehensive performance evaluation index system is constructed for UHV power transmission projects from four dimensions of operation, finance, environment and society, and a comprehensive performance evaluation model is proposed for UHV power transmission projects based on Bayesian best-worst method and improved matter-element extension model. The former combines Bayesian theory and the best-worst model to determine the weight of each criteria, while the latter improves the traditional matter-element extension model to achieve the grade ranking of the comprehensive performance for UHV power transmission projects. A case study is made on a ±800kV UHVDC power transmission project, and the result shows that the overall performance of the project falls into ‘Medium’ grade. The case study shows that the proposed model is effective and scientific for comprehensive performance evaluation of UHV power transmission projects.