A parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology applied to a street canyon air pollution model |
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Affiliation: | 1. The Institute of Optics, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, United States;2. Aix Marseille University, CNRS, Centrale Marseille, Institut Fresnel, UMR 7249, Marseille Cedex 20, France;1. Nuclear Research Center of Draria (CRND/COMENA), Sebala, Draria PO Box 43, Algiers, Algeria;2. National Polytechnic School of Algiers (ENP), 10 Hassen Badi, PO Box 182, El Harrach, 16200 Algiers, Algeria;3. University of Bouira, Algeria |
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Abstract: | Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM®). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to successfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified. |
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Keywords: | Uncertainty Sensitivity OSPM Data splitting Exploratory data analysis Matlab |
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