城市水系统关联模型研究

为了理清城市水系统中多因素间的复杂关系,对系统解决城市水问题提供帮助,基于水系统理论与城市水系统模拟相关研究,提出了城市水系统中水-经济社会-生态环境各因素之间相互作用和反馈的关联模型理论框架,建立了城市水系统演变过程中由针对经济发展的正反馈回路和针对可持续性的负反馈回路共同控制的新模式,构建了模拟城市水-经济社会-生态环境内在联系的城市水系统关联模型。以武汉市为例,应用建立的城市水系统关联模型,采用2001—2017年的历史统计数据,建立了武汉市城市水-经济社会-生态环境各要素之间互馈作用的模拟模型,预测了武汉市的城市发展轨迹,并与武汉市2030年的远期规划进行比较,验证了模型的有效性,表明城市水系统模型能够揭示城市水-经济社会-生态环境多要素的耦合驱动机制,体现了节水技术与绿色发展相关政策两大因子导向下的生态环境、经济社会协同发展的良好预期。

Research on the nexus model of urban water system

To clarify the complex relationship between multiple factors in the urban water system and provide help for the system to solve urban water problems, a theoretical framework of nexus model to describe the interaction and feedback among water-economic society-ecological environment in urban water system was proposed based on water system theory and relevant studies on urban water system. A new model controlled by positive feedback loops for economic development and negative feedback loops for sustainability in the evolution of urban water system was established. A nexus model of urban water system that simulated the interrelationship of water-economic society-ecological environment was constructed. Taking Wuhan City as an example, the built nexus model of urban water system was applied. A simulation model of the mutual feedback effect of water-economic society-ecological environment elements was built by adopting historical statistical data from 2001 to 2017 and predicted the urban development trajectory of Wuhan City. The validity of the model was verified compared with the long-term planning of Wuhan City in 2030, which indicated that the urban water system model could reveal the multi-elements coupling driving mechanism of water-economic society-ecological environment and reflected the good expectation of the coordinated development of ecological environment and economic society under the guidance of two major factors of water-saving technology and green development related policies.