基于贝叶斯理论的考虑多维风速之间相关性的概率潮流计算

随着风机大规模投入运行,多维风电场之间风速的相关性会影响电力系统的稳定性.考虑相关性的概率潮流计算有助于合理地调控电力系统运行方式以及优化调度,从而提升系统的稳定性.文中针对多维风电场之间的相关性,提出了一种基于贝叶斯理论的最大期望算法及Rosenblatt变换的概率潮流三点估计法,该算法能够很好地捕捉风电场之间的非线...

Bayesian Theory Based Calculation of Probabilistic Power Flow Considering Correlation Between Multi-dimensional Wind Speed

With the large-scale integration and operation of wind turbines, the correlation of wind speed between multi-dimensional wind farms will affect the stability of the power system. Probabilistic power flow calculation considering correlation is helpful for reasonably regulating power system operation modes and optimal dispatching, so as to improve the system stability. Aiming at the correlation between multi-dimensional wind farms, a three-point estimation method based on the maximum expectation algorithm of Bayesian theory and Rosenblatt transform is proposed. This algorithm can well capture the nonlinear correlation between wind farms, calculate the joint distribution function of wind speed in multi-dimensional wind farms, and apply it to probabilistic power flow calculation. Finally, the algorithm is verified by the IEEE 118-node system, and compared with Monte Carlo simulation method and Nataf transform. The results show that the proposed algorithm has the advantages of high accuracy and fast convergence speed.