玉米薄饼贮藏品质分析及货架期预测模型建立

为探索玉米薄饼贮藏品质变化规律，以玉米粉和小麦粉为原料制备韧性玉米薄饼，研究玉米薄饼贮藏14 d内感官品质、理化指标、微生物指标、质构及老化特性的变化，探讨影响玉米薄饼贮藏品质变化的主要因素，建立玉米薄饼货架期预测模型。结果表明：贮藏在4、25 ℃和40 ℃ 3 种温度条件下，玉米薄饼的酸值、过氧化值、菌落总数、热焓值、b*值随贮藏时间的延长逐渐增大；韧性、延展性、L*值、a*值、感官评分逐渐降低。通过相关性分析得出菌落总数可以作为反映玉米薄饼贮藏货架期的品质因子，建立不同温度条件下菌落总数生长动力学模型及随贮藏温度变化的动力学模型，其准确因子为1.126～1.281，偏差因子为0.899～1.051。在此基础上建立韧性玉米薄饼货架期预测模型，预测值和实际值的相对误差为－4.10%～2.91%，模型能够快速可靠地预测饼的货架期，可为玉米饼及相关制品的工业化生产提供技术和理论依据。

Quality Analysis of Stored Corn Pancake and Establishment of Shelf-Life Prediction Model

The purpose of this study was to investigate the storage quality and shelf-life of tough corn pancakes. Tough pancakes were prepared from a mixture of corn and wheat flours and were stored for up to 14 days. Changes in sensory quality, physicochemical and microbiological indices, texture and starch retrogradation characteristics were measured during the storage period. The key factors affecting the quality change of corn pancakes during storage were discussed, and a shelf-life prediction model for corn pancake was established. The results obtained showed that during storage at 4, 25 and 40 ℃, acid value, peroxide value (POV), the total number of bacterial colonies, enthalpy value and the color parameter b* value increased, while toughness, ductility, the color parameters L* and a* values, and sensory score gradually decreased. According to correlation analysis, the total number of bacterial colonies could be used as a quality indicator to evaluate the storage life of corn pancakes. A kinetic model for the growth of total bacterial colonies under different temperature conditions and a kinetic model with storage temperature as an independent variable were established. The bias factor (Bf) of the developed model was 0.899–1.051, and the accuracy factor (Af) was 1.126–1.281. Further, a shelf-life prediction model for tough corn pancakes was established, and the error between the predicted and actual values was ?4.10%–2.91%, indicating that this model can quickly and reliably predict the shelf-life of corn pancakes. This study will provide technical support and a theoretical basis for the industrial production of corn pancake and related products.