Scenario-based determination of product feature uncertainties for robust product architectures

Modular product architectures are used by many firms today to achieve a high degree of product differentiation whilst reducing cost through economies of scale. At the same time, the firms are increasing architecture lifetimes to 10 years or more, which brings up new challenges for the development process. Uncertainties regarding future product features need to be anticipated when designing the architecture to minimize modification efforts. Nevertheless, existing approaches for designing modular product architectures are mainly based on static requirements and thereby neglect the dynamics of the market that influence future product features. This paper aims at presenting a method utilizing scenario-planning and simulations in the product range planning process to determine future product features and their uncertainties as a basis for the product architecture design. Possible feature specifications are derived from product environment scenarios and linked to the factors influencing the scenarios, to calculate their expected values and deviations.