基于CPT的地基液化概率评价

通过LOGISTIC模型，以世界范围内19次大地震106个场地的液化案例为基础，构建基于CPT的液化概率评价模型，采用仅通过CPT试验即可获取的锥尖阻力和摩阻比作为评价参数，既体现严格的统计学意义又具有明确的物理意义，预测液化和非液化的可靠性分别达到91．2％和86．8％。并拟舍得到液化概率和抗液化安全系数的S型关系曲线以便于工程应用。理论分析与工程实例对比表明，相对于《岩土工程勘察规范》推荐的CPT模型，本文建议模型的评价结果和《建筑抗震设计规范》的SPT模型评价结果更为接近，且物理意义更为明确，为利用现场原位测试数据进行地基液化评价提供了更为简洁、准确的新途径，可以作为规范方法的有益补充。

Evaluating soil liquefaction probability using CPT data

According to cone penetration test data from 19 strong earthquakes liquefaction site around the world, a model for evaluating probability has been developed based on LOGISTIC regression analyses using the normalized cone penetration resistance and the friction ratio. The model not only satisfies the statistic requirements but also highlights the physical meanings of the model parameters. The estimation veracity of liquefaction is 91.2% and that of non-liquefaction is 86.8%. Furthermore, the relationship between the factor of safety against liquefaction and the probability of liquefaction has been established for practical purpose. Through theoretical and contractive analyses on a representative sample, the estimation veracity of the developed CPT model goes near to the SPT model of Code for Seismic Design of Buildings and the CPT model of Code for Investigation of Geotechnical Engineering. Therefore, a new simple method will be used to access soil liquefaction, which can be used as a significant supplement to the code.