基于熵权灰色关联法的我国石油安全评价

为了能够科学地评价我国石油安全的程度,结合PSR"压力-状态-响应"框架构建了我国石油安全评价指标体系,运用熵权法和灰色关联分析法对我国1993~2014年的石油安全状况进行定量评价。结果表明中国自1993年成为石油净进口国以来,影响中国石油安全的三个主要因素为石油储采比、石油对外依存度和石油储备水平;1993~2014年中国石油安全的压力整体呈增大趋势,而保障石油安全的状态指标大幅波动且有下降趋势,石油响应程度因战略石油储备水平影响表现偏差,从而导致中国石油整体处于不安全状态。

Research on Evaluation of Petroleum Security in China Based on Entropy Grey Correlation Method

To be able to scientifically evaluate the extent of China"s oil security, the evaluation index system of China"s oil security combined with PSR framework is constructed and Entropy Method with Grey Relational Analysis is used to make an quantitative evaluation on the petroleum security situation of 1993-2014 in China. This study has revealed that since China becomes a net oil importer in 1993, there are three main factors affecting the security of petroleum that the oil reserve-production ratio, the dependency of foreign petrol and the strategic oil reserve. Meanwhile, the pressure of oil security has gradually increased, the state of oil security have a significant volatility and a decline trend ,and the response of the society influenced by the level of strategic reserve is worse than other countries, which result in the China petroleum in a state of insecurity.